Bush is Toast

I listened to the second presidential debate on the radio. In the first part of the debate, George Bush not only reminded of his previous terrible debate performance but he boldly, if unconsciously, demonstrated a new way of revealing his character flaws. He seemed to think that his arguments were more credible if he shouted them. He came across as especially coarse when he shouted the slogans he had repeated over and over again in the first debate.

Mr. Bush, to this radio listener, even seemed to shout-down moderator Charles Gibson in order to reply to John Kerry on when Gibson wanted to ask a follow-up question. During this first part of the debate, Bush seemed to alternate between being whiney, defensive and angry before finally getting into a calmer, coherent and more-or-less articulate groove that he was mostly able to sustain through the debate. But the damage was already done.

Listening to the two men side by side, on question after question, the stature gap that was revealed in the first debate was confirmed. Kerry came across as stable, knowledgeable, and statesmanlike, winning on substance on point after point.

One of the truly remarkable features of Kerry's debate performance was that he managed to integrate a posture of fiscal conservatism with economic populism. He was able to talk about balancing the budget while effectively portraying Bush as the advocate of big corporations and the wealthy, at the expense of everyone else. He was also devastating in his portrayal of Bush as having squandered the trillion dollar surplus with tax cuts "for the wealthiest people in the country," and giveaways for big corporations including Enron. Kerry offered a strong argument for balancing the budget in part by closing corporate tax loopholes and other give-aways.

Bush almost sounded convincing when he talked about taking "unpopular" decisions in the name of "doing the right thing." But Kerry effectively rejoined that Bush "rushed to war without a plan to win the peace." Bush's main appeal was based on bold declarations and appeals to patriotism: "freedom is on the march" in Iraq and Afghanistan, he said. As dubious as the reality is, such rhetoric sounds good and there are people who can't get enough of that kind of stuff. But I don't think there are enough of those folks for Bush to win reelection. Certainly not among those who came into the debate undecided.

Bush's poll numbers have been in a slow and steady free-fall since the first debate, as Kerry's poll numbers have risen. It would seem that the side by side impressions of the two candidates that launched that trend, were confirmed in this debate.