MA Special Elections: The Home Stretch

You don't have to be a Massachusetts political junkie to appreciate the historic nature of next week's Democratic primary to fill three vacant seats for state representative. The likely winners in all three races are proponents of same-sex marriage, and opponents of the proposed constitutional amendment that would ban same sex marriage, but recognize civil unions. And they will be the likely next state representatives in these overwhelmingly Democratic districts. Their predecessors were all conservative Democrats who epitomized the era of former House Speaker Tom Finneran -- who infamously rose to the speakership by cutting a deal for Republican votes.

Its the home stretch, and all three races promise to be exciting -- and possibly be photo finishes.

Meanwhile, the far-right is flailing and is concerned that they will lose all three races. However, adding drama to the final week, it is also possible that in the multicandidate fields in the two Suffolk County (Boston area) races, a conservative in each field may yet be able to pull ahead, as progressives divide the moderate and liberal votes.

Interestingly, in these two races most progressive groups, notably the statewide Commonwealth Coalition have lined up behind the leading candidates, while the State AFL-CIO, and some member locals have endorsed others. In the race in the 3rd Berkshire district, the Commonwealth Coalition has joined the AFL-CIO in endorsing one candidate, while some leading progressive groups are backing another. Whew! Its not really as complicated as it sounds. Read on.

The race that has receive the most attention to date, is in the 18th Suffolk district, that comprises Allston, Brighton and part of Brookline in greater Boston. The leading contender has been Tim Schofield, who has convincingly presented himself as the clear progressive in the field. But old time liberal, Michael Moran has the support of the AFL-CIO and is a strong contender. Oddly, Moran posted a slick web site which has almost nothing in it. Suffice to say that Moran is running an old-fashioned campaign and has no use for the netroots. In contrast, Schofield has by far the best, and most frequenlty updated web site of any candidate in the three special elections. Schofield, who also has significant support from organized labor, keeps racking up significant endorsements from pols, progressive organizations, and editorial writers, including The Brookline Tab and Bay Windows.

Some observers have felt that the election would significantly turn on the Brighton section of the district. If that's so, then the endorsement of Schofield by the Ward 21 Democratic Committee in Brighton, may prove to be one of the pivotal endorsements in the race. On the other hand The Boston Globe as well as The Allston TAB and The Boston Phoenix endorsed Michael Moran on Wednesday. Like all the special elections, the race will probably be close, and in the end pivot on orgnanization and getting out the vote, than endorsements.

The Brookline chapter of Progressive Democrats of Massachusetts, (PDM) has been active in Schofield campaign from early on, aided by the PDM group in nearby Newton.

In the 12th District, where there are five candidates in the primary, issues of race and marriage equality are dominating news coverage, although it remains to be seen whether those matters will really be the driving concerns of the voters. The district, which comprises parts of Mattapan, Dorchester, and Milton, figured into a federal civil rights redistricting lawsuit after the last census, that resulted in a district with an almost 70% minority population. But, the closing weeks of the campaign have seen African-American leaders expressing public concern that efforts to ensure minority representation may be undermined because there are three minority candidates in the field, creating the distinct possibility that one of the two white candidates could prevail.

State Senator Diane Wilkerson has called on Emmanuel Bellegarde and Kerby Roberson to withdraw in favor of apparent front-runner Linda Dorcena Forry, who has received the support of progressive and marriage equality groups, as well as The Boston Globe, while liberal Stacy Monahan, who has been chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Steven Lynch is backed by the AFL-CIO. The division of liberal and labor voters, as well as the division of minority voters, seems to provide an opening for Eric Donovan, who is a more of an old school conservative Irish Catholic style Democrat.

In the 3rd Berkshire race in Pittsfield, city attorney Christopher Speranzo received a last-minute endorsement from the Commonwealth Coalition, the only race in which it has coalesced with the AFL-CIO behind a single candidate. The endorsement comes so late, it is hard to say what, if any effect the endorsement will have. Progressive activists and organizations that have taken a position in the race, have generally lined-up behind the candidacy of Rhonda Serre, an economic development aide to U.S. Rep. John Olver.

Blogger Nohomissives has a report on the final candidate debate in which he underscores some odd phrasing (positioning?) by candidate Pam Malumphy. Was her declaration that people have a "right-to-work," a general statement of the need for jobs? Or was it a not-so-coded opposition to organized labor? It could be a costly gaffe in this tight race.

Now you may have been wondering what is the far right thinking about these races. No? Well I was. So I checked back at the web site of the Article 8 Alliance -- which has posted a handy detailed round-up of the three races. The Article 8 Alliance, the virulently anti-marriage equality group that was so active in the 2004 legislative races (and distinguishes itself with persistent antigay bigotry) doesn't seem to have the juice to do much this time. But, that doesn't mean they aren't doing what they can.

They note that in the 12th Suffolk District to replace former House Speaker Tom Finneran, "Kerby Roberson is fighting the good fight against the homosexual lobby’s favorite, Linda Forry... pro-gay Senator Dianne Wilkerson (D-Roxbury) called for Roberson and the other black candidates to withdraw from the race so Forry could win! What an outrage!"

"This district is largely a working-class, pro-traditional marriage area," The Alliance continues, "and it would be terrible for the homosexual lobby to win there and represent those people by taking advantage of this situation. Anyone who can help out, or donate money, please call him!"

Roberson is a perennial candidate who seems to have little chance of winning this one. Based on statewide polling data and news accounts, it is unlikely that very many people outside the Article 8 Alliance are voting primarily on the issue of marriage inequality. From this distance, it appears more likely that Roberson staying in the race, will as Wilkerson and other black leaders say, divide the minority vote, and possibly boost the chances of attorney Eric Donovan, the white conservative with long roots in the district. Donovan supports putting the antigay marriage amendment to the state constitution on the ballot, which is what promarriage equality forces are trying to thwart.

Meanwhile in the 3rd Berkshire race, The Alliance likes Rinaldo del Gallo, a gad-fly write-in candidate, best known as a father's rights activist. They think he has a chance, tho. And report that the other candidates are "completely gonzo on this issue."

In the 18th Suffolk race, The Alliance complains that Schofield is supported by "homo PACs." But they like Greg Glennon, who was until two years ago, a Republican. "Glennon is first-rate!," they report. "It'll be tough, tho. Shofield (sic) is a gay activist, and is getting big financial and organizational help from the homosexual lobby."

The Alliance, (a project of the rightist Parents' Rights Coalition) first came to public attention via a nasty statewide campaign to oust the majority of the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court that legalized same sex marriage in the Goodridge decision. The Alliance derives its name from article eight of the Massachusetts state constitution, which it cites in its effort to remove the Goodridge judges.

The Alliance was widely condemned last year when it waged a vicious smear campaign against Carl Sciortino, who was running against then-State Representative Vincent Ciampa (D-Somerville) in the Democratic primary. One of the group's main tactics was the publication of a bizarre tract which was dropped off at every home in the district. The screed was titled: "A Special Report on the Homosexual Lobby's Secret Campaign to Install a Homosexual Anti-Catholic Extremist in the State Legislature." The voters sent Ciampa packing.

Should any decent, self-respecting Democrat be involved with or accept support from this outfit? It is not too late for Glennon, Del Gallo, and Roberson to take a stand.

There you have it. There will probably be exciting developments every day from here to next Tuesday, March 15th, primary day.

Late Breaking News: The Massachusetts affiliate of Democracy for America, an outgrowth of the presidential campaign of Howard Dean, has announced a statewide email effort to recruit volunteers for Get Out The Vote (GOTV)activities for Rhonda Serre, Tim Schofield and Linda Dorcena Forry. Check their web site for details.