Amidst all the campaign hoo ha there are sleeper factors at work that are beyond the control of the presidential campaigns and the political parties. These factors are present in events that are causing people to talk with and learn from one another in ways that the media cannot track, and the pollsters cannot measure. I believe these sleeper factors may very well determine the outcome of the presidential election.
Last week I wrote about what I called "The Moore Factor" -- the release of the video and DVD of Fahrenheit/911 in tandem with his national speaking tour, mostly on college campuses. While it may seem odd to talk about the high profile
Michael Moore as a sleeper factor, I promise to explain in a moment.
Consider this: the first day sales of Fahrenheit/911 videos and DVDs on October 5th, set a record.
According to a Reuters report, "Day 1 sales figure and projected Week 1 sales of 3 million combined units set the benchmark as the most successful documentary ever released on home video." One-point-four million of these "units" were sold on the first day to stores, which in turn, have to sell them to customers. But clearly, they wouldn't be buying units they did not believe they would sell. That means of the first day sales, 600,000 were sold to individual customers.
Fahrenheit/911 is at the top of the Amazon.com sales charts.
The political impact of so many people viewing and discussing this film with friends and family, unmediated by the campaigns and the pundits, is incalculable. How people react to this film in the privacy of their homes or their dorms -- as they go back to watch certain scenes again, and again -- is a force now being unleashed that will alter political culture in America.
Part of Moore's call is for people to think and act for themselves. If one believes the polls and the news media, only a handful of states are even worth voting in this year in terms of the presidential contest. Moore went to
Nashville, Tennessee and sought to deprogram people from believing that Tennessee, which polls show to be fairly close is necessarily a Bush state. "I don't trust these polls and I'll tell you why," he declared. "First of all, they're not polling young people; they're not polling anyone with a cell phone. They poll likely voters, and "likely voters"; means someone who is consistently voting. So that means they're not polling first-time voters, and they're not polling the nonvoters or the occasional voters that we're going after... It's said so much that this is a Bush state, people just start to believe it; I don't believe it. I believe John Kerry can and will win this state."
Millions of young voters have been registered this year -- hundreds of thousands in swing states like Ohio and Michigan alone. And Moore's efforts have helped. But the polls have no way of measuring the likely impact of all this. Moore is correct about the inherent unreliability of supposedly scientific polls that cannot control for so many new and large variables. Of course, its in the business interest of the polling companies to pretend, but that does not mean that the rest of us have to believe.
Meanwhile, there is another catalytic tour that is reaching out to prospective voters in swing states. Unlike Moore's mediagenic arena events, (reliably assisted by protests by the College Republicans),
two touring companies of actors are staging performances of Words of Choice, a compelling play by
Cynthia Cooper, that has been playing in comparatively smaller venues all year, and is now on a "Go Vote" tour. The show ends up in the swingest of the swing states, Florida, where there will be shows in Coral Gables, Gainesville, Tallahassee and Orlando.
Here is a description of the play: "A fusion of shorts from journalism, poetry, oral history, comedy and spoken word, Words of Choice projects the rich panorama of modern lives. In it, a father describes his feelings after learning of his daughter’s rape, a pregnant teen tries to recall the phone number of her date, a woman learns of severe fetal anomalies during Jewish holidays, two adventurous thirty-somethings spill all in comic confessions, and a deranged publicist announces the release of the morning-after burrito. A dozen writers are represented, including Kathy Najimy, Angela Bonavoglia, Justice Harry Blackmun, Gloria Feldt, Emilie Townes, Judith Arcana, Michael Quinn, and The Onion. Performances are followed by a discussion with artists and activists."
Cooper wrote in her new blog on
HotFlashReport about a recent performance in Wisconsin: "...our three actors had performed at the Electric Earth Cafe in Madison. Young women from the university -- freshmen, it turns out -- commented after the show. 'I grew up as a Catholic. I grew up hearing pro-life messages and I sort of thought I was pro-choice, but I was really confused," says one. 'I came for information. All of the women's stories are great. All of the different reasons that women have. A lot of people forget about women's rights. It really makes you think,' she says."
Sometimes performances of
Words of Choice are followed by
news stories as well -- maybe not as often as Michael Moore, but certainly as deserving.
Moore and Cooper's events are each in their ways, building a new and vibrant political culture. They are bringing art, entertainment, history and journalism alive -- and engaging people in the politics of the moment in ways that help people to experience thier place in history, as actors on the Ameican stage. What could be more politically profound than for people to come away with a better appreciation of their roles as citizens, and communities of citizens, instead of as passive consumers of political "messages" and dubious political data?
Words of Choice invites people to think, and to talk with each other about things often left undiscussed in our culture. But Cooper is determined to let thoughtful discussions of abortion take place in this election year, this last month, when so much is at stake for reproductive rights for women.
I think it will be at events like these, and in the conversations that take place afterwards among friends and family, that this election will be decided -- when people talk about what is really important in their lives, and what is important the country and in the world. These are the kinds of events, and the kinds of conversations, that break through the group-think of the political parties and the mass media. These are events at which people are free and encouraged to think for themselves. There is nothing more vital to the health of a constitutional democracy.